Rumors are swirling that Vice President JD Vance may not run in the 2028 election after The Daily Mail, citing multiple sources, reported Vance had become “more isolated than ever” following former intelligence director Tulsi Gabbard’s departure.
Gabbard publicly said she resigned in order to focus on her husband’s bone cancer diagnosis. But reports had also indicated that she had increasingly been pushed to the sidelines of major foreign policy discussions because of disagreements with the administration.
President Donald Trump’s military operations in Venezuela and Iran have reportedly pushed Vance further to the margins within the administration, as his non-interventionist worldview has increasingly clashed with the White House’s foreign policy direction.
Before the war began in February, Vance was reportedly the lone senior official arguing for a more limited response rather than a broader military campaign, warning that a larger operation risked igniting a wider regional war. As Vance’s standing has diminished, the influence of Secretary of State Marco Rubio has reportedly grown.
The more hawkish Rubio has championed a more aggressive U.S. military posture abroad. He has also long made clear that one of his central foreign policy goals is the overthrow of the communist government in Cuba, while increasingly escalating rhetoric toward Cuba.
Indeed, the Mail reports:
"Vance's isolation comes at a moment when Marco Rubio's stock inside the West Wing has never been higher, with the Secretary of State helping to plan an invasion of Cuba, while the Vice President flails in peace negotiations with Iran."
"The Vice President's dovish brand of foreign policy has set him on a collision course with Trump, the sources say, the rift deepening as Trump embraces his wartime-leader image."
Gabbard’s departure marked the second high-profile loss for Vance among officials opposed to the war effort. The earlier resignation of Joe Kent as director of the National Counterterrorism Center in March further weakened the administration’s restraint-oriented faction.
A source told the Mail that "rumors are also circulating in the West Wing that Vance is weighing whether to step back from the 2028 race entirely as a tactical move" and that it might be better for Vance not to "own everything that's gone on in the last couple of years."
Vance's team pushed back against the Mail's reporting, telling The Independent that the publication's story was "just a flimsy compilation of completely illegitimate sources who have no idea what they're talking about."
Amid all this, NewsWire, powered by Polymarket, reported that "Vance's odds of winning the GOP primary have fallen to 35% as Rubio rises." Indeed, Vance's odds are down 22%—to 33.6%—while Rubio's have shot up 18 percentage points, putting his odds at 25.1%.
The reactions to the news are hilariously brutal.
Vance was asked about the possibility of running alongside Rubio on a future presidential ticket during a White House press conference earlier this month.
Vance brushed aside the speculation, saying voters would probably look unfavorably on “someone who’s barely been in one office for a year and a half angling for a job two and a half years down the road.” This came after Trump referred to the duo as a "dream team."
Trump, who was speaking at a White House event in the Rose Garden, turned toward Vance after polling attendees and said his remarks about a "dream team" does not mean "you have my endorsement, under any circumstance,” adding that it instead "sounds like presidential candidate and vice presidential candidate.”
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