It wasn't that long ago that we were all bracing for an all but certain Democratic shellacking, to borrow former President Obama's phrase, in this November's midterms, with even control of the solidly Democratic House of Representatives looking likely to fall into Republican hands.
Well, that was then and this is now, as the saying goes.
And the "now" in question is a midterm cycle in which Republicans overturned abortion rights and openly embraced fascism while Democratic President Joe Biden got to work passing historic legislation on everything from infrastructure to student loans.
And it seems voters have noticed. Because our "now" is also one in which even Fox News is spelling doom for Republicans in November.
A new poll by the network shows that the GOP is now poised to pick up one--yes one, as in (1)--House seat in the fall.
Which means, as Meidas Touch makes clear:
Democrats would retain control.
\u201cTake all polls with a grain of salt.\n\nBut Fox News polling (A-rated by 538) now predicts the GOP will only gain one House seat -- meaning Democrats would retain control.\n\nThe momentum has shifted towards Democrats in a massive way. Let's all put in the work and WIN!\u201d— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) 1663200552
It's worth noting that Fox News has a well-respected polling department despite its at best loose relationship to the truth in its prime time line-up--meaning these are numbers to take seriously.
Of course, it's still only September and much could change by November--so don't go getting complacent. But Fox's findings should have Republicans all over the country on high alert.
The network's poll focused on four key issues for the midterms: crime and inflation, which favor Republicans, and abortion and the future of democracy itself, which favor Democrats.
Those four issues easily split between the two parties. But taken together, Fox found that if Election Day were today, Democrats would lead Republicans by three percentage points, which translates into a gain of one single House seat for Republicans.
Fox's numbers are part of a fairly shocking trend. In the network's polling last month, the two parties were evenly tied at 41%. Prior to that, every poll since December had Republicans leading by as much as seven points.
Fox's polling is just the latest indication that the GOP's all-out attacks on abortion, and its overlapping attacks on democracy, may prove to be a grave miscalculation.
As has been widely reported, new voter registrations by women have surged by historic numbers since the June 24 overturn of Roe v. Wade, both nationally and in some of the deepest-red states in the country, like Alabama and Idaho.
In reliably Republican Kansas, that surge was upward of 60%, and a state abortion ban was defeated there last month in a landslide nobody, even Democrats, saw coming.
Many Republican candidates have even begun softening their stances on abortion in response, including Arizona's far-right candidate for Senate, Blake Masters, who scrubbed his website of any evidence of his extreme abortion views and replaced them with a more moderate take.
Fox's poll bears out this shift even more starkly, finding that voters disapprove of the SCOTUS in general by a 10-point margin and its action on Roe two-to-one.
On Twitter, Fox News' polling definitely caught people's attention.
\u201cSo a new @FoxNews poll has Dems up 44-41, which is a *10* shift to Dems in last few months. \n\nIn their model 44-41 would result in Dems KEEPING the House. \n\nLet\u2019s close strong my friends and win the midterms. It\u2019s within reach.\u201d— Simon Rosenberg (@Simon Rosenberg) 1663199856
\u201cLast fall: GOP was saying 60+ seat gain. \n\nNow: \u201cThe Democrats\u2019 3-point edge is within the survey\u2019s margin of sampling error \u2013 and Fox News modeling suggests it translates into a GOP gain of about one House seat.\u201d https://t.co/afbHDS74hJ\u201d— James Singer (@James Singer) 1663200176
\u201cWhy are Dems ahead in this Fox News poll? Because Dems put #PeopleOverPolitics by focusing on lower costs, better-paying jobs and safer communities.\n\nWhat are Republicans focused on? Putting women and doctors in jail for abortion. How do we know? GOP introduced legislation on it.\u201d— Ted Lieu (@Ted Lieu) 1663255938
\u201cWow. Dems up 44-41 on the congressional ballot and @FoxNews modeling shows Republicans gaining only one seat (meaning Democrats hold onto the House).\n\nAs always must be prefaced, it's only one poll but it adds to the evidence of Democratic momenum.\n\nhttps://t.co/W6LURPAuS6\u201d— Tommy Meyer (@Tommy Meyer) 1663195632
\u201cFox News projections now have Republicans gaining one seat in the House, with Democrats retaining control.\nThe GOP is running out of runway seven weeks before the midterms. Getting crushed with women. Of course that\u2019s influencing House races as well.\nNow Lindsay to the rescue lol\u201d— Alan Covington (@Alan Covington) 1663256106
\u201c@FoxNews From the article:\n\n"Overall, if the Congressional election were today, 44% would back the Democratic candidate and 41% the Republican ... and Fox News modeling suggests it translates into a GOP gain of about one House seat."\n\nRed wave, LOL!!\u201d— Fox News (@Fox News) 1663199344
And it left many liberals feeling cautiously hopeful and determined to fight to win in November.
\u201c@MeidasTouch I hope that trend keeps moving in the Dems\u2019 favor\u2014 the Republican Party needs to be electorally embarrassed and consigned to the dustbin of history.\u201d— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) 1663200552
\u201c@MeidasTouch Screw the poles\n\nWe need to fight like Xena Warrior Princess and overcome the evil that is smothering our country\u201d— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) 1663200552
\u201c@MeidasTouch @BlueDotBrig I believe the GOP will gain nothing. I said what I said!!!\u201d— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) 1663200552
\u201c@MeidasTouch We can't relax now we are so close. Stay motivated, stay fighting, get out & vote this Roevember guys. Imagine all the stuff we can get done if we keep control of the House and the Senate. Voting rights, codifying abortion, etc... Come on guys we can do this. We are so close.\u201d— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) 1663200552
Fox's poll was likely conducted before Republican Senator Lindsey Graham's wildly unpopular proposed national ban on abortion after 15 weeks, so next month's polling just might look even worse for Republicans.
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