Skip to content
Search AI Powered

Latest Stories

FiveThirtyEight Predicts Historical Republican Loss in 2018

FiveThirtyEight Predicts Historical Republican Loss in 2018

U.S. Senator-elect Doug Jones' victory in Alabama earlier this month may have been a turn in the tide of American politics, which could drastically shift control of Congress to Democrats in 2018. That is what polling aggregation website FiveThirtyEight, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, would have us believe.


The website reports a CNN survey conducted earlier this month that shows Democrats with a record-breaking 56 percent to 38 percent lead over Republicans. In addition, FiveThirtyEight's own generic ballot aggregate shows the Democrats with a 12-point advantage. Their report explains the significance of that lead:

That average, like the CNN poll, also shows Republicans in worse shape right now than any other majority party at this point in the midterm cycle* since at least the 1938 election.

*the November or December before a midterm election

Historically speaking, this puts Republicans in a very poor position going into a midterm election year.

History shows the House flipping in similar situations.

Democrats are favorites to win the House in 2018.

FiveThirtyEight explains why the Democrats will take the house in 2018:

Their current advantage is larger than the lead Republicans had at this point in the 1994 cycle, the lead Democrats held at this point in the 2006 cycle or the lead Republicans had at this point in the 2010 cycle. Those were all years when the minority party won control of the House.

 

Most House incumbents win, despite which way the tide goes.

Something to keep in mind is that regardless of which party is favored to win in midterm election years, those already with seats in Congress (incumbents) tend to keep those seats when they run for reelection. But FiveThirtyEight claims this guarantee becomes less of one with each election cycle.

A rallying cry to rid Republicans from congressional leadership.

Haven't they done enough hard work to earn their removal from office?

Millions of people lost their healthcare via the new tax bill, now signed into law. The Republican leaders are celebrating. Others are celebrating too... that there are only 319 days left until the 2018 midterm elections.

But nothing will change if people don't vote.

And the Republicans' loss in 2018 is not guaranteed.

As more than a couple people have pointed out, FiveThirtyEight has been wrong before.

Please SHARE this with your friends and family.

h/t: Twitter, FiveThirtyEight,

More from News

Kid Rock
Todd Kirkland/Getty Images

Kid Rock Dragged After Donning A Truly Over-The-Top Outfit For His White House Visit

Singer Kid Rock was slammed for wearing a loud patriotic costume inside the Oval Office as Republican President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Monday against ticket scalping.

The rocker's outfit consisted of a red, white, and blue jacket emblazoned with two eagles facing each other above the American flag with the number 250, a nod to America's upcoming 250th anniversary, and white stars on his sleeves.

Keep ReadingShow less
Screenshot of Bill Cassidy
CNBC

MAGA Senator Just Said The Quiet Part Out Loud With Epic Freudian Slip About Medicare

Louisiana Republican Senator Bill Cassidy was widely mocked following his inconvenient slip of the tongue during a CNBC interview as he mused about finding ways to "cut" Medicare before quickly correcting himself.

The exchange occurred after host Rebecca Quick pressed Louisiana Republican and former physician Bill Cassidy on how his party intended to fund the “trillion-dollar tax cuts” sought by President Donald Trump.

Keep ReadingShow less
Screenshot of Tim Sheehy
CNN

GOP Senator Gets Blunt Reality Check After Comparing Trump Tariff 'Pain' To Home Renovation

Montana Republican Senator Tim Sheehy was criticized after he tried to compare the "short-term pain" of President Donald Trump's tariffs to home renovation, a claim so ridiculous that CNN's Kaitlan Collins quickly pushed back on the analogy.

Trump has repeatedly referred to April 2 as “Liberation Day,” pledging to impose tariffs—taxes on imports—to reduce U.S. reliance on foreign goods. He has framed these tariffs as “reciprocal,” aiming to match the duties other nations place on American exports.

Keep ReadingShow less
Susan Crawford; Elon Musk
Scott Olson/Getty Images (left and right)

Liberal Wisconsin Judge Calls Out Elon Musk In Victory Speech—And It's Everything

Liberal judge Susan Crawford called out billionaire Elon Musk in her victory speech after winning a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, basking in successfully beating her Republican opponent Brad Schimel and ensuring that the nonpartisan court’s narrow 4-3 liberal majority remains intact despite Musk's efforts to sway the race.

Musk fueled the high-stakes race, having poured more than $20 million into supporting Schimel, according to state campaign records. That includes $3 million to the state Republican Party—$2 million of which was donated just last week. Due to state election laws, large contributions must be funneled through political parties before reaching candidates.

Keep ReadingShow less

People Describe The Worst 'Bonus' They've Ever Gotten At Work

Most of us have worked at one problematic workplace, with reasons ranging from toxic coworkers to terrible bosses to unlivable pay. Sometimes, it feels like a joke that the employees are even being paid at all!

But the biggest joke of all might be the end-of-year bonus, or lack thereof. They're at times so laughable, they take the cake for horrible work conditions, or are quite literally, a slice of cake.

Keep ReadingShow less