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FiveThirtyEight Predicts Historical Republican Loss in 2018

U.S. Senator-elect Doug Jones' victory in Alabama earlier this month may have been a turn in the tide of American politics, which could drastically shift control of Congress to Democrats in 2018. That is what polling aggregation website FiveThirtyEight, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, would have us believe.


The website reports a CNN survey conducted earlier this month that shows Democrats with a record-breaking 56 percent to 38 percent lead over Republicans. In addition, FiveThirtyEight's own generic ballot aggregate shows the Democrats with a 12-point advantage. Their report explains the significance of that lead:

That average, like the CNN poll, also shows Republicans in worse shape right now than any other majority party at this point in the midterm cycle* since at least the 1938 election.

*the November or December before a midterm election

Historically speaking, this puts Republicans in a very poor position going into a midterm election year.

History shows the House flipping in similar situations.

Democrats are favorites to win the House in 2018.

FiveThirtyEight explains why the Democrats will take the house in 2018:

Their current advantage is larger than the lead Republicans had at this point in the 1994 cycle, the lead Democrats held at this point in the 2006 cycle or the lead Republicans had at this point in the 2010 cycle. Those were all years when the minority party won control of the House.

 

Most House incumbents win, despite which way the tide goes.

Something to keep in mind is that regardless of which party is favored to win in midterm election years, those already with seats in Congress (incumbents) tend to keep those seats when they run for reelection. But FiveThirtyEight claims this guarantee becomes less of one with each election cycle.

A rallying cry to rid Republicans from congressional leadership.

Haven't they done enough hard work to earn their removal from office?

Millions of people lost their healthcare via the new tax bill, now signed into law. The Republican leaders are celebrating. Others are celebrating too... that there are only 319 days left until the 2018 midterm elections.

But nothing will change if people don't vote.

And the Republicans' loss in 2018 is not guaranteed.

As more than a couple people have pointed out, FiveThirtyEight has been wrong before.

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h/t: Twitter, FiveThirtyEight,