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Thomas Homer-Dixon, a Canadian political science professor who is the founding director of the Cascade Institute at Royal Roads University in British Columbia, warns that the United States could be ruled by a "rightwing dictatorship" by 2030.
Homer-Dixon's stark warning came by way an op-ed he wrote in The Globe and Mail. He criticized former President Donald Trump, saying that should Trump decide to run for office again, it would further the "collapse" of American democracy by 2025.
Is a US right-wing dictatorship likely? Questions, disagree, or want to know more? Meet me in the article's #CommentsSection Dec 31 and Jan 1 to discuss. (1/3)https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-american-polity-is-cracked-and-might-collapse-canada-must-prepare/\u00a0\u2026— Thomas Homer-Dixon (@Thomas Homer-Dixon) 1640969589
Referring to Trump as a “wrecking ball that demolishes democracy," Homer-Dixon said:
“In 2014, the suggestion that Donald Trump would become president would also have struck nearly everyone as absurd. But today we live in a world where the absurd regularly becomes real and the horrible commonplace."
“By 2025, American democracy could collapse, causing extreme domestic political instability, including widespread civil violence. By 2030, if not sooner, the country could be governed by a right-wing dictatorship."
“If Trump is re-elected, even under the more optimistic scenarios the economic and political risks to our country will be innumerable.”
Homer-Dixon argued that Trump, who has often been criticized for promoting a deconstruction of the administrative state, would continue to remove the guardrails of American democracy purging the government of his political opponents, including "the bureaucrats, officials and technocrats who oversee the non-partisan functioning of core institutions and abide by the rule of law."
He acknowledged that Trump is not necessarily competent, but noted that these efforts would weaken the United States' ability to ward off an autocratic, "managerially competent" ruler who would "bring order to the chaos he’s created."
He also issued harsh criticisms of high-profile Trump acolytes, including Fox News personality Tucker Carlson and Georgia Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, who have transformed the Republican Party “into a near-fascist personality cult that’s a perfect instrument for wrecking democracy."
Perhaps most crucially, Homer-Dixon advises that the Prime Minister of his own country–Canada–should convene an all-party parliamentary committee to assess the risks and advise the government on how to respond to that democratic failure.
Many have concurred with Homer-Dixon's assessment–and expressed their own concerns.
America\u2019s darkest hour is yet to come, and Trump\u2019s second term will only be the wrecking ball to pave the path. #DontLookUp , eh?!https://twitter.com/TadHomerDixon/status/1476959622716014594\u00a0\u2026— cassandra (@cassandra) 1641222450
Scary read this one. Scary because its potential to become a reality.https://twitter.com/tadhomerdixon/status/1476959622716014594\u00a0\u2026— Manuel Barcia \ud83d\ude37 (@Manuel Barcia \ud83d\ude37) 1641201428
When you consider the heavy weight sources that @TadHomerDixon provides, and you understand both the historical and current contextual alignments he identifies, it\u2019s a pretty compelling argument for a future scenario deserving of preparation. What do you think?https://twitter.com/TadHomerDixon/status/1476959622716014594\u00a0\u2026— Stephen Davies (@Stephen Davies) 1641002445
If you\u2019re Canadian, read this. If you\u2019re American, read this. I don\u2019t have the creds to write about it, but it\u2019s the nightmare I\u2019ve been having since Trump was elected.https://twitter.com/TadHomerDixon/status/1476959622716014594\u00a0\u2026— Kat Nicholson \ud83c\udff4\udb40\udc67\udb40\udc62\udb40\udc65\udb40\udc6e\udb40\udc67\udb40\udc7f\ud83c\uddef\ud83c\uddf2\ud83c\udff4\udb40\udc67\udb40\udc62\udb40\udc77\udb40\udc6c\udb40\udc73\udb40\udc7f\ud83c\udde8\ud83c\udde6 (@Kat Nicholson \ud83c\udff4\udb40\udc67\udb40\udc62\udb40\udc65\udb40\udc6e\udb40\udc67\udb40\udc7f\ud83c\uddef\ud83c\uddf2\ud83c\udff4\udb40\udc67\udb40\udc62\udb40\udc77\udb40\udc6c\udb40\udc73\udb40\udc7f\ud83c\udde8\ud83c\udde6) 1641010649
Powerful article. Definitely an establishment lens, but a thought provoking & intelligent analysis nonetheless.https://twitter.com/TadHomerDixon/status/1476959622716014594\u00a0\u2026— Andrew Foster (@Andrew Foster) 1641055350
This article by @TadHomerDixon in the @globeandmail is an exceptional read. Important recommendations and strong use of historical examples.https://twitter.com/tadhomerdixon/status/1476959622716014594\u00a0\u2026— Joanne Archibald (@Joanne Archibald) 1641152194
I\u2019d bet that there is a policy group in the federal government working very very quietly on options for when/if the US disintegrates into civil war or a dictatorship.https://twitter.com/TadHomerDixon/status/1476959622716014594\u00a0\u2026— Gillian Burles (@Gillian Burles) 1641170233
Much going on in here that is worth careful and thoughtful responses, of which I am certain it will get. One thing I will say we ought to do *now* is to take seriously there are regions of the US w/ particularly high lvls of armed anti-gov't group activity *on* the Int'l Boundaryhttps://twitter.com/TadHomerDixon/status/1476959622716014594\u00a0\u2026— Andrew Papenheim \u2370 (@Andrew Papenheim \u2370) 1640980722
\u201cThe more an under-resourced government can\u2019t solve everyday problems, the more people give up on it, and the more they turn to their own resources and their narrow identity groups for safety.\u201d \nA chilling must-read https://twitter.com/tadhomerdixon/status/1476959622716014594\u00a0\u2026— Michelle MacAleese (@Michelle MacAleese) 1640974580
Although Trump has not made a formal announcement, most prognosticators believe he will run for office again in 2024.
In November, Trump hinted he would announce a presidential run after next year's midterm elections, which will determine if Democrats manage to retain control of both chambers of the legislature.
Speaking to Fox News, he said "a lot of great people who are thinking about running are waiting for that decision, because they're not going to run if I run."
Trump's advisers have previously instructed him to wait before he makes an official announcement confirming his candidacy.
According to a Washington Post report, which cited individuals familiar with the discussions, advisers who have told the impatient Trump he has to wait before making an announcement are nervous that an early announcement would mobilize Democrats and increase voter turnout.