After a 2016 campaign marred by violence, racism, and bigotry, former President Donald Trump's unexpected ascent to the White House sent a foreboding message to marginalized Americans across the country.
LGBTQ people worried that Trump would roll back the protections gained by the movement over the preceding decade—such as LGBTQ anti-discrimination causes in the Affordable Care Act, the nationwide recognition of same-sex marriage, and the repeal of Don't Ask Don't Tell.
Trump frequently claimed to be the most pro-LGBTQ Republican presidential nominee, expressing apathy toward marriage equality rather than blunt opposition and holding a rainbow flag (upside down) on a rally stage.
Dan Canon, one of the lawyers who argued for marriage equality in the landmark Obergefell v. Hodges Supreme Court case published an op-ed just days after Trump was declared the winner of the 2016 election. Canon assured LGBTQ people that wouldn't their "worst nightmares" were "unlikely to come true," and especially emphasized that Trump couldn't unilaterally ban same-sex marriage.
But marriage equality is but one issue effecting the lives of LGBTQ people. Soon, the Trump administration announced a ban on transgender people serving in the Military, against the findings of Pentagon officials. Trump also worked to further enshrine so-called "religious freedom" to bolster protections for public businesses and even medical professionals to refuse service to LGBTQ people. Trump's allies continue to pain trans people as mentally ill predators in their pursuit of bathroom bans and other asinine crusades against them.
And because then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell successfully blocked swathes of Obama's judicial appointments, Trump was able to somewhat transform the country's courtships, appointing three Supreme Court Justices and more than 200 judges to federal courts across the nation—many of whom will all but certainly rule against LGBT rights.
Already, Texas—which already openly violated the Constitution with its recent anti-abortion law—has taken steps to ban same sex marriage in the state. Texas Representative James White sent a letter to far-right Attorney General Ken Paxton seeking Paxton's opinion on the legality of marriage equality. White emphasized that Texas' constitution defines marriage as one man and one woman, and that Texas did not change these laws in response to Obergefell v. Hodges.
This has prompted Canon to reverse the sentiments in his 2016 op-ed and warn conservative courts will work to strip away LGBTQ rights.
Hi, I was one of the lawyers who won Obergefell at SCOTUS and litigated the Kim Davis case in Kentucky. Back when Trump was elected, I said same-sex couples didn't have to be worried about their marriages. \n\nI was wrong. https://twitter.com/dataandpolitics/status/1451968654757691393\u00a0\u2026— Dan Canon (@Dan Canon) 1635098121
In 2016, I grossly underestimated the effect of Trumpism on the lower courts and on red-state legislatures. Here, bathe in the shame of my 5-year-old hubris. https://t.co/PmjsTkQURa
— Dan Canon (@dancanon) October 24, 2021
My thinking then was partially because our victories in the Davis case were so decisive. But things have changed. A lot.
— Dan Canon (@dancanon) October 24, 2021
The unwillingness of SCOTUS to do anything about SB8 sent a clear signal to red-state legislatures: 'do whatever you want, the courts won't stop you.' TX GOP heard that message loud and clear. Look for this in all other red states too, certainly by next session if not before.
— Dan Canon (@dancanon) October 24, 2021
The long and short of it is: if you're in a deep red state right now, things are going to get very, very bad. If your state has no chance of turning blue, you should move. It pains me enormously to write that, but I give advice for a living and this is the best advice I've got.
— Dan Canon (@dancanon) October 24, 2021
Canon even suggested that LGBTQ people in deep red states should move, for their own protection.
The bleak picture generated a wealth of reactions on Twitter.
Is literally anything ever going to get better or are we just going to keep spiraling deeper into despairhttps://twitter.com/dancanon/status/1452332903778684941\u00a0\u2026— tired. (@tired.) 1635179740
Oh ffshttps://twitter.com/dancanon/status/1452332903778684941\u00a0\u2026— Caroline Yodice (@Caroline Yodice) 1635163342
The effort to turn the US into a Christofascist state is working.https://twitter.com/dancanon/status/1452332903778684941\u00a0\u2026— Ryan the Design Lion (@Ryan the Design Lion) 1635156416
If there\u2019s one thing the SCOTUS refusal to enjoin SB8 shows, it\u2019s that there\u2019s one law for the Federalist Society and another law for the rest of us. If the topic were gun control rather than abortion, do you think the current Court would let it stand?https://twitter.com/dancanon/status/1452332903778684941\u00a0\u2026— Convolver (@Convolver) 1635138141
Anything is constitutional if 5 Supreme Court justices say it is. With the current makeup of the court, we're in trouble.https://twitter.com/dancanon/status/1452332903778684941\u00a0\u2026— Jeffrey Lazarus (@Jeffrey Lazarus) 1635177323
The Republican Platform is only 66 pages long yet devotes 2 sections to their plan to overturn Windsor + Obergefell, the SCOTUS cases that found the federal govt & all states must recognize same-sex marriage. \n\nRepublicans are hateful bigots. Stop voting for them. #Texas https://twitter.com/dancanon/status/1452332903778684941\u00a0\u2026pic.twitter.com/yV4f0S1Bez— OurRev305 (@OurRev305) 1635124606
Numerous LGBTQ people expressed fear for what's to come.
This is very bad.https://twitter.com/dancanon/status/1452332903778684941\u00a0\u2026— Stephen Guerriero \ud83c\udff3\ufe0f\u200d\ud83c\udf08 (@Stephen Guerriero \ud83c\udff3\ufe0f\u200d\ud83c\udf08) 1635180638
I\u2019m honestly scared for the futurehttps://twitter.com/dancanon/status/1452332903778684941\u00a0\u2026— \ud83c\udf38 efaya \ud83c\udf38 (@\ud83c\udf38 efaya \ud83c\udf38) 1635186164
I've had a few friends tell me that I'm overly concerned about what's going on with SCOTUS. This thread outlines a lot of my concerns. It's a terrifying read...https://twitter.com/dancanon/status/1452332903778684941\u00a0\u2026— Maggi Heyer (@Maggi Heyer) 1635187863
Paxton has yet to release his opinion on White's claims about the state of same sex marriage in Texas.
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